2022 Tongan eruption 'cooled' Earth, did not add to extreme warming in 2023-24: Study

New Delhi, The Tongan volcano eruption in 2022, thought to contribute to the extreme warming the world experienced in 2023-24, instead "induced a slight cooling effect," a new research has found.

The findings bring the focus back to greenhouse gases from human activities as the main cause of warming in the period, "with a big assist from El Nino," said author Andrew Dessler, an atmospheric scientist at the Texas A&M University, US.

In mid-January 2022, the eruption of the underwater volcano Hunga Tonga - Hunga Ha'apai in the Pacific island of Tonga released unprecedented levels of aerosols and water vapour into the Earth's atmosphere, thereby raising its moisture content.

Because water vapour produces a greenhouse effect by trapping Earth's heat and raising temperatures, there was an "initial speculation that it might account for the extreme global warmth in 2023 and 2024," the researchers said.

While studies have suggested that the Tongan volcanic eruption could partly explain the extreme warmth over the past two years, its contribution to global temperatures is yet to be ascertained.

For their analysis, published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, the researchers looked at satellite data of NASA and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration related to aerosols and water vapour to estimate the energy balance of the Earth's climate.

They found that the eruption resulted in more energy leaving the climate system than entering it, thereby inducing the slight cooling effect.

The cooling brought on by the eruption is similar to the effects produced by major volcanic events in the past, the authors said.

They cited the volcanic eruptions of Tambora in 1815 and Mt. Pinatubo in 1991 , in which the aerosols released blocked sunlight, thereby "significantly cooling down the global climate."

"Our paper pours cold water on the explanation that the eruption caused the extreme warmth of 2023 and 2024," Dessler said.

By dismissing the volcanic eruption as a major factor, the study reinforces that human-induced greenhouse gas emissions are the primary driver of climate change, according to the authors.

This focus is particularly relevant, given the ongoing debate and misinformation about the causes of global warming, they said.

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