2023 ended 1.5°C warmer than pre-industrial average: Report

Nearly 29% of Earth’s population experienced record warmth in 2023, a year that ended 1.5°C warmer than the pre-industrial average, Berkeley Earth, a California-based non-profit, said in its Global Temperature Report for the last year.

While the report concurred with other datasets that said the last year was the warmest on record, it highlighted differences in methodologies and said, “The global annual average for 2023 in our dataset was estimated as 1.54 ± 0.06 °C above the average during the period 1850 to 1900.”

The European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service on Tuesday said that the annual average temperature was 1.48°C higher than pre-industrial average.

The Berkeley Earth report conclusively said that higher temperatures were being driven by man-made global warming, while also listing natural and man-made factors that contributed to the unusual heat last year.

The emergence of an El Nino, along with “1-in-100 year temperature anomalies” in the Northern Atlantic sea surface temperature combined to produce significant warmth.

“Warmth in 2023 greatly exceeded expectations, and was much stronger than normal this early in an El Niño,” it said.

The high temperatures and the extreme weather events it triggered have led to speculation that the rate of global warming is accelerating.

“2023 is definitely a major misfit to the model, but it remains to be seen if 2023 is merely an unusual outlier or if it is an indication of unexpected changes ahead,” Robert Rohde, Berkeley Earth Lead Scientist, said in a release.

In 2023, 17% of the Earth’s surface sizzled in record high temperatures and these areas coincided with major population centres.

“We estimate that 2.3 billion people experienced a locally record warm annual average in 2023. This includes half the population of China, and a majority of the populations of Bangladesh, Japan, Mexico, as well as much of South and Central America,” it said.

It was largely expected that 2023 will end as the hottest on record, but the annual average closing in on the 1.5°C threshold under the Paris Agreement has raised alarm, with experts flagging that the breach may become annual.

“With greenhouse gas emissions continuing to set record highs, it is likely that the climate will regularly exceed 1.5 °C in the near future,” said Rohde.

To be sure, a monthly or even yearly breach of 1.5°C – a key threshold under the Paris Agreement beyond which multiple tipping points could be triggered leading to cascading effects for the climate system — does not automatically mean that the goal has been exceeded.

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