As Biden walks away, does he become a lame duck president?

Washington: With President Joe Biden’s decision to quit the presidential race, it is clear that he will become a substantially weaker president in the remaining six months of his term. His party, his opponents, his external allies and partners, and his adversaries all know that will be dealing with a different leader in six months and will hesitate to make any bets on the current administration.

At the same time, whether Biden, no longer constrained by having to run for office and worry about political imperatives, can also feel liberated in exercising authority and pushing issues is to be seen.

In his letter to Americans on Sunday, Biden said that he would not seek re-election but “focus solely on fulfilling my duties as President for the remainder of my term”.

The American president remains extraordinarily powerful even at his weakest, especially at a time of global tumult. Indeed, just this week, Biden will host Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu — whose war Biden has supported but who also has defied Biden’s advice — in Washington DC.

The war in Ukraine continues. China continues to be aggressive with Philippines and elsewhere. Internally, inflation has dipped but not enough for most consumers even as interest rates remain high and housing is unaffordable. And everyday, given the fluidity of events, there are new crises that occur in some part of the country or the world and land up on the resolute desk in Oval Office. All of this means that Biden’s plate will be full each day he is in office.

The problem for him, however, is how the rest of the political world in a ruthless power capital such as DC and the rest of the geopolitical world now perceive him.

In the Congress, Democrats have a majority in the Senate while Republicans control the House. While Biden has had major successes in the past, it is unlikely that the President will be able to push any major legislative breakthrough in this period. Neither side has much incentive in listening to Biden anymore.

In the administration itself, while it has been more disciplined than many credit it for, there is a risk of inter-agency rivalries intensifying, or, on the other end, department leaders going inert and a policy paralysis striking the government given the uncertainty about what lies ahead. In terms of staff, there will be people who are already brushing up their CVs and looking for a quick exit as they realise Biden isn’t returning.

For the outside world, some allies anticipated Donald Trump’s lead and earlier in the year, sought to “Trump-proof” policies and security architectures - this is both true in the case of NATO which stepped up aid to Ukraine and in the case of America’s treaty allies such as Australia, Japan, Philippines and South Korea which stepped up their partnership with US. Other countries, including Russia and even Israel, have clearly tilted towards a Trump presidency or calculated they may get a better deal.

But at this stage, capitals of all persuasions may choose to pause, build their networks with the Kamala Harris team, penetrate the Trump ecosystem and wait it out till January when a new administration takes over.

Politically, Biden will also be constrained by the fact that he must not do anything that harms a possible Harris candidacy; in fact, all his speeches and actions have to be supportive of the candidacy, and this may mean restraining himself at times, leaving issues for his possible successor at other times, and being more cautious than he is known for. But there is one alternate scenario.

For Biden, there is no other election to be fought and won, and these are the final few months of a long and distinguished political life. That may empower him and free him to push issues that are within the scope of executive action. It is to be seen how he chooses to use that space. Biden’s final six months will indeed be among the most unusual for an American president in his first term in office.

Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.