Charges against Prigozhin remain even after 'exiled to Belarus' deal: Russian news agencies

Mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin remains under investigation - for leading the Wagner Group in an armed rebellion against top Russian military leaders and president Vladimir Putin - state-run news agencies said Monday. News agency AFP said three state agencies each cited a source in the prosecutor's office as saying 'the criminal case against (Yevgeny) Prigozhin has not been dropped.

Russia's Kommersant newspaper also said the case remains open and that the Federal Security Service, or FSB, is continuing its investigations. It cited an unidentified source as saying there had not been enough time to close the case.

What happened in failed Russia coup?

On Sunday the Kremlin managed to halt the advance of the Wagner Group - a private military organisation led by Prigozhin - on Moscow and stopped a civil war that would have derailed the Ukraine war and ended Putin's career.

A deal brokered by Belarus president Alexander Lukashenko - details of which will likely never be made public - saw Wagner fighters withdraw from the Rostov region and return to Ukraine, where they have spearheaded Russia's illegal war.

Prigozhin - once seen as close to Putin - was to go into exile and not face prosecution for actions his president denounced as 'treasonous'.

READ | Prighozin quiet, Putin 'missing' day after Wagner drops Russia 'coup'

As of now, however, it seems the Wagner chief still faces criminal charges.

The events of the weekend, however, are not quite as simply resolved, with the fate of the Wagner soldiers, Prigozhin and Putin seen as uncertain.

So what happens now?

Do Wagner soldiers go back to invading Ukraine? Does Putin continue to rule? Will Prigozhin surrender leadership of Wagner and 'retire'? What will Russia do?

Russia recovering?

Russia began efforts to restore calm this morning with defence minister Sergei Shoigu - one of the main targets of Prigozhin's anger - visiting Russian troops involved in the Ukraine operation. State television footage showed Shoigu being briefed on the war, studying maps and inspecting soldiers' positions.

It is significant, though, that Putin has not been seen in public since his fiery speech on Saturday, in which he warned rebel Wagner soldiers and their supporters of 'brutal action'. "Those who organised a military mutiny… who took up arms against their comrades… will answer for it… our actions to protect the Fatherland... will be harsh," a visibly furious Putin said in on national TV.

READ | 'Treachery…': Putin slams Wagner, warns of 'brutal' response

What did the US say?

The West appears as perplexed as everyone else but United States Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stressed Prigozhin's actions have uncovered 'more cracks in the Russian façade'.

"It is too soon to tell exactly where they go and when they get there... but certainly we have all sorts of new questions Putin is going to have to address in the weeks and months ahead."

The US reportedly had intelligence - available several days ago - that said Prigozhin was plotting armed action against Russian defence officials, Bloomberg said in its report.

What did Ukraine say?

Ukraine, meanwhile, hailed the rebellion and president Volodymyr Zelenskyy told his US counterpart Joe Biden it had 'exposed the weakness of Putin's regime'.

Ukrainians had hoped the infighting could help their army, which is in the early stages of a counteroffensive to take back territory seized by Russian forces.

What will happen to Wagner Group soldiers?.

The Wagner Group - officially Wagner PMC - has been credited with significant victories in Ukraine on behalf of Russia and Putin, including the capture of the city of Bakhmut after a long and bloody battle. Their absence from the battlefield was short-lived and have probably not have scuppered plans to conquer Ukraine but it has certainly boosted the defenders.

The group's prowess was on display for 24 hours, in which they captured two cities, including Rostov, the military HQ of the southern region, shot down at least three helicopters and marched on Moscow.

"I honestly think Wagner probably did more damage to Russian aerospace forces in the past day than the Ukrainian offensive in the past three weeks," Michael Kofman, director of Russia studies at the CNA Research Group, said.

Watch: How Russians responded to Wagner fighters leaving Rostov

Given their potency, it is unlikely Moscow will launch (at least overtly) retaliatory action against Wagner fighters who marched with Prigozhin, who were offered an amnesty of sorts by the Russian defence ministry on Saturday.

According to the Associated Press, those who did not back Prigozhin will be offered contracts by the Russian military, putting them under the control of those he was trying to oust.

There was speculation the rebellion was motivated by demands private military companies like Wagner sign contracts with the Russian government by July 1. Putin backed this demand.

What happens to Prigozhin?

Prigozhin was last seen late Saturday in a car leaving Rostov to the cheers of some locals; how many were cheering in support of the failed coup and how many were jeering it is unclear. Some, however, ran to shake hands with Prigozhin as he drove away. His current whereabouts are unknown.

READ | Wagner chief to be exiled to Belarus; fighters' fate uncertain

The Wagner chief accepted a deal because he wanted to 'avoid bloodshed' and has been exiled to Belarus - which is a close ally of Putin under Lukashenko.

Speculation suggests Prigozhin could decide to stay in Ukraine or go to Africa, where Wagner has active contracts, as he looks to recover from these events.

"Going to Belarus may be an option - he seems to know and trust Lukashenko... but he would still be in danger there... my best bet is he will continue to operate in Ukraine, rather than Belarus, where he can justify maintaining relative freedom among men loyal to him," the NBC News said citing an expert.

Ultimately, though, the truth is nobody (outside of the Kremlin and maybe Putin) really knows what will happen next.

With input from agencies

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