Harris gaining momentum, Trump lost ‘political boost’ from assassination bid: Ex-US NSA John Bolton on US polls | Exclusive

New Delhi: US Vice President Harris is working to maintain the momentum from the past two weeks by searching for a running mate who can further strengthen her campaign. She has gained traction with Democrats, younger and Black voters, and women who believe she would better represent their interests. This has shifted the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race as Harris has advantages over President Joe Biden, including a perception of better cognitive health and an opportunity to differentiate her policies from Biden’s, allowing her to define her positions for voters.

During an exclusive interview with the Hindustan Times, John Bolton, former National Security Advisor under Donald Trump, discussed Harris’s growing strength against Trump and the former president’s waning ‘political boost’ following the attempted assassination bid. He also highlighted the potential foreign policy implications of a Harris presidency, including its impact on Middle East tensions, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the strengthening of India-US defence partnerships to counter China’s influence.

Excerpts from the interview:

How do you think Kamala Harris’ candidacy changes the dynamics of the 2024 presidential race, especially given the recent polarisation in American politics? Also, according to several reports, Harris is leading Trump in a lot of polls, due her focus on issues like women’s rights. The younger generation, especially Gen Zs are supporting her?

“Well, I think the dynamics in the presidential race have changed dramatically. And without any question, after President Biden’s very poor performance in the presidential debate with Donald Trump, his support was falling off a cliff. And as days and weeks went by, it became clearer and clearer that he was in deep trouble, maybe irretrievable trouble, and that his defeat, which looked increasingly inevitable, would have negative effects on Democratic Senate candidates, House candidates, state and local elections. So, the decision for him to withdraw and the very rapid acquisition of a majority of support for the Democratic nomination by Kamala Harris really signified, I think, the Democrats’ desire to avoid any more political downside.

“So, recognising that Biden had been taken off the table and Harris was now their nominee produced an enormous burst of enthusiasm and optimism on the Democratic side. There’s no doubt about it. I think people would generally agree that the polls show this is a dead-even race. Harris has the momentum. Trump has recently performed in typical Trumpian fashion and has harmed himself in a number of ways. But the future is very hard to forecast. What we can say is with less than 100 days to go until Election Day, it’s going to be a very short, for America, unusually short contest.”

Given the recent assassination attempt on Trump, how do you think this incident has impacted his campaign strategy? The clip of him raising his arm shortly after the shooting has become widely popular, portraying him as a resilient, strong man. Do you believe this has boosted his popularity?

“In the immediate aftermath of the assassination attempt, yes it did! People naturally felt sympathetic for him. He was literally within an inch of his life. The bullet couldn’t have come any closer and not done significant damage, probably fatally. One person in the crowd has died, two were critically injured, so it was a very, very dangerous situation. And the moment where Trump could have capitalised on that politically came just really a few days later at his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention.

“But it showed the speech was a typical Trump speech, didn’t show any indications he was a new man, that the near miss on his life had changed him, and his behaviour has only reverted more and more into typical Trumpian behaviour since then. So whatever bounce he got, as we say, in political terms from the attempted assassination, I think is over. And we’re sort of back to where we were before.”

Given your experience in national security, Ambassador Bolton, how do you see the potential foreign policy implications of a Harris presidency compared to a second Trump term, particularly regarding issues such as relations with China, the Middle East peace process, NATO alliances?

“Well, very little is known about what Kamala Harris’s positions on international matters are. Certainly, she served in the Biden administration for three and a half years. In her public comments, she has adhered to the Biden administration’s policy. But what role she had in formulating that policy is not clear. It does not appear to have been significant. But now, in this very, very short sprint to election day, with turmoil all over the world, particularly in the Middle East, but in Ukraine, along China’s Indo-Pacific periphery, there are a lot of danger spots in the world.

“She’s going to have a debate with Trump. She’s going to be asked these questions. So, she needs to develop her policies very quickly. I would guess that they would be largely in line with what the Biden administration has done. I think she knows what those policies are. And in this short time, her safest course is to stick with that. Now, if she were to win and had four years as president, then we would find out a lot more. But I don’t think we’re going to see much evolution beyond the Biden administration during this very, very short campaign period.”

What about taxes? Do you think if Harris is elected, small businesses will face higher taxes?

“I think the instinct of the Democratic Party is to raise taxes on everybody that they can find and this will be one mark of whether Harris can shake the image she has of being a California Democrat, very much on the left side of the Democratic Party. Her running mate as vice president will be an interesting indication there. That announcement is expected next Tuesday.”

“So, she’s still in the vetting process and she should take every hour that she has to look at everything in the background of her potential running mates. In my opinion, her best political strategy isn’t to try to control them, but to reach out to the vast middle ground. This group likely doesn’t want to vote for Trump again, but they also aren’t looking for someone who will push the country far to the left. If she can master that balance—though it’s a big “if”—she could win.”

Considering the ongoing tensions in the Middle East, particularly with Iran’s support for groups like Hamas, how do you think a Harris administration would respond differently compared to Trump’s more hardline stance?

“Well, this is one area, the Middle East, where a Harris administration might look very different from a Biden administration. And that potential difference was, I think demonstrated during last week’s visit of Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, met with President Biden, Trump, and also Harris. And the approach she took certainly appeared to be less favourable to Israel than Biden or Trump. Now, whether that’s a difference in tone, which is what many of Harris’s supporters have said or whether it indicates substantive policy differences that would be elaborated in a Harris presidency.

“We don’t know. But this is one of our difficult political tasks domestically. And in this race as well, the left wing of the Democratic Party takes a generally more anti-Israel line than does the Biden White House. But the supporters of Israel have always formed since Harry Truman made the United States the first country to recognise Israel in 1948. It had been a big part of the Democratic Coalition, too. So, it’s a difficult line to walk.”

Given Harris’ background and political stance, do you anticipate a shift in the US-Israel relationship under her leadership, particularly regarding military aid and diplomatic support?

“Well, that I think will be a subject of discussion. In his first term, Trump was very supportive of Israel. However, he has indicated that criticism of Israel’s actions in the war against Hamas reflects poorly on him. Trump sees bad publicity for Israel as bad publicity for himself, and he doesn’t like that. So, his meeting with Netanyahu was also frostier, I think, than perhaps the Israelis expected. But Harris has another difficult aspect of her campaign is, she has to support the Biden administration policies on a wide range of issues, domestic as well as international.

“She’s been part of it for three and a half years, but she also needs to show where she would be different to stake out her own ground in the event she wins. And that’s a difficult task for any vice president. I think it’s made it particularly difficult for her since she wasn’t preparing to run this year. She thought she’d be running as vice president. She’s under a lot of pressure in a short time to answer a tough question: How can she demonstrate loyalty to President Biden while also showing that she’s her own person?”

If Trump returns to the White House, do you believe the US would maintain its current level of financial and military support for Ukraine, or could we see a significant reduction?

“Well, I think Trump has said he wants the war in Ukraine brought to a conclusion. He said he would get Zelensky and Putin in a room together and solve it in 24 hours. That’s ridiculous, of course. But from Trump’s point of view, all international affairs are personal. If he has a good relationship with Prime Minister Modi, then the US and India have good relations.

“If he has good relations with Vladimir Putin, then we have good relations with Russia. It’s much more complicated than that, but not in Trump’s kind of simple view of how the world works. So, I think his affinity for President Putin of Russia is bad news for Zelensky and the Ukrainians and could well mean a much more difficult time, including reductions in US assistance to Ukraine if Trump wins.

“Speaking of Harris, we don’t know really how much of a difference she might bring from Biden. My guess is not much, certainly not in the in the early months of a Harris term. She’s spoken out about the importance of support for Ukraine. So, the best prediction you can make is she would basically continue that policy.

“But one thing that will happen at the end of this election, whoever’s inaugurated on January 20, even if it’s Harris, will change the advisers. It’s not because she’s dissatisfied with Biden’s people, but in a new administration, even when there’s a transition from one, the president of one party to a president of the same party, they change teams. So, when we know what that new team looks like, then we may have a better idea of Harris’ direction on a whole range of issues.”

How important do you think is the India-US relationship in countering China’s influence?

“Well, I think that China is the existential threat to the US in the 21st century. I think the axis that Beijing is developing with Moscow is very dangerous for all of us on the periphery of this huge landmass represented by China and Russia. There are many difficult choices that countries will have to make. I don’t think the Biden administration has responded effectively enough to China. I think they’ve been too concerned about climate change and not enough about Chinese threats to Taiwan, South China Sea, along China’s land borders.

“You think the Biden administration was right to increase reliance on the Asian security quad—Japan, India, Australia, and the US—but there is more that can be done. So, India faces tough choices due to its long relationship with Russia. These issues will be immediately on the new president’s agenda.”

So, how might the approach to trade and negotiations and economic cooperation with India differ under a Harris administration compared to the policies pursued by Trump, particularly in areas like tariffs, market access, defence partnership in the Pacific strategy?

“Well, I think Trump has a kind of 18th or maybe 17th century view of tariffs. He thinks tariffs are great. He said he’s going to put 10 per cent import tariffs on everything coming into the US that recalls the smooth hauling tariffs of the 1930s which caused the Great Depression in the minds of many economists.

“I think it is a bad idea. Look, trade talks even among friends are often very difficult and nobody should try to underestimate that but by and large, increased access, increased trade, lower tariff barriers, lower regulatory barriers between the US and India would be a good thing. I don’t think this is an area where Harris has had much experience.

“Again, I would say the default position is she’s likely to view things pretty much through the same perspective as Joe Biden does today. I just think Trump will be a harder negotiator on trade issues than is necessary. Frankly, I’m not saying a US president should give up on the interest of US economic interest, but you know, you can have tough negotiations and not sacrifice a lot of other important strategic issues in the process.”

What are your thoughts on Trump’s recent interview where he promised automatic green cards for foreign students graduating from US colleges. It, obviously, contrasts sharply with his usual anti-immigrant rhetoric. So, do you believe this is a genuine policy shift or merely a campaign promise?

“I remember this issue came up when I was the National Security Adviser. He had run into a friend of his somewhere who said that that’s what we ought to do because so many foreign students came to the US for undergraduate college or graduate degrees and very well qualified people, very impressive and many of them wanted to stay in here rather than go back to their home country.

“My view is we should welcome more legal immigration into the US and so that sounds like an attractive way to proceed. But whether it makes sense overall or not, I don’t know. If you have 5,000 new poetry students come to the US, I am sure they’re fine people and they do great analysis of poetry. But I am not sure if we need 5,000 new poetry professors. So, what’s attractive about the idea is that America has been a magnet for ambitious people for centuries. I’d like to see more people like that. And that’s the kind of approach we should be taking.”

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