Human-induced global warming increasing by 0.26°C per decade: Report

Human-induced global warming is increasing at the rate of 0.26°C per decade, the highest rate since records began, according to the second annual Indicators of Global Climate Change Report. The report put together by over 50 climate scientists under the supervision of the University of Leeds, found that human-induced warming has risen to 1.19°C over the past decade (2014-2023). It marks an increase from 1.14°C from 2013 to 2022 (cited in last year’s report).

The warming caused by human activity reached 1.3°C last year and the total was 1.43°C above the 1850-1900 average in the multi-data set mean used in the study.

The report said natural climate variability, particularly El Niño, also played a role in record temperatures in 2023. The analysis shows that the remaining carbon budget (how much carbon dioxide can be emitted before committing to 1.5°C of global warming) is only around 200 gigatonnes (billion tonnes). This is around five years’ of current emissions.

In 2020, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) calculated the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C was in the 300 to 900 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide range, with a central estimate of 500. “Since then, CO2 emissions and global warming have continued. At the start of 2024, the remaining carbon budget for 1.5°C stood at 100 to 450 gigatonnes, with a central estimate of 200,” the report said.

University of Leeds Priestley Centre for Climate Futures director Piers Forster said their analysis shows that the level of global warming caused by human action has continued to increase over the past year, even though climate action has slowed the rise in greenhouse gas emissions. “Global temperatures are still heading in the wrong direction and faster than ever before. Our analysis is designed to track the long-term trends caused by human activities.”

Forster said observed temperatures are a product of this long-term trend modulated by shorter-term natural variations. “Last year, when observed temperature records were broken, these natural factors were temporarily adding around 10% to the long-term warming.”

The findings coincided with the Bonn Climate Conference (June 3 to June 13), which is expected to set the agenda for climate negotiations this year and open discussions on a new finance goal to replace the existing goal of $100 billion per year. The new finance goal is meant to channel greater funds toward urgently needed climate action in developing countries.

Speaking in Bonn on Monday, UN climate chief Simon Stiell said without UN-convened international cooperation, they would be headed for up to 5 degrees of global heating, which most of humanity likely could not survive. “We are now headed for around 2.7 degrees. This is still ruinously high, and there’s a long and steep road ahead to get to our shared goal of 1.5 this century, but we should be energized that we are approaching a halfway point.”

Imperial College London’s climate science and policy professor Joeri Rogelj said the relentless dumping of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere combined with the exceptional warming of the past year means that the 1.5°C budget is smaller than ever. He added it is smaller than what would be expected if they just counted down past emissions. “Global warming stands at 1.3°C; significantly lowering greenhouse gas pollution over the next 5 to 10 years is the only way to ensure that the planet is not warming by another quarter of a degree by 2035.”

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