Hurricane Beryl moves toward Jamaica after Grenada strike

Hurricane Beryl’s winds have slightly weakened as it churns toward Jamaica, where its storm surge, high winds and flooding rains could cause more than $1 billion in damage.

Beryl’s top winds dropped to 155 miles (249 kilometers) per hour, down from 165 mph earlier, the US National Hurricane Center said Tuesday as the storm passed south of the Dominican Republic. That made Beryl a Category 4 hurricane again, after it became the Atlantic’s earliest Category 5 storm on record late Monday.

The hurricane, which has already devastated several islands in the eastern Caribbean, is forecast to lose some strength before it reaches Jamaica. But it will likely still be a major storm, with winds in excess of 111 mph.

“This is at least a billion-dollar event for Jamaica,” said Chuck Watson, a disaster modeler with Enki Research. If Beryl’s track shifts, damages could be even higher. Prime Minister Andrew Holness has urged residents to prepare by stocking up on supplies and food.

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Beryl made landfall Monday on Carriacou, the second-largest of Grenada’s islands. Authorities reported widespread damage and three deaths, but Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell said the port and international airport will be able to resume operations Tuesday. Power was being partially restored.

“To some extent we dodged a bazooka,” Mitchell said. “We have to count our blessings.”

US President Joe Biden said he was following the storm’s progress.

“People impacted, islands and communities are in our prayers, and we stand by to provide assistance,” Biden said during remarks at the DC Emergency Operations Center. “Look, extreme weather events drive home a point that I’ve been saying for so long: ignoring climate change is deadly and dangerous and irresponsible.”

While the humanitarian losses are still being assessed, there are signs Beryl is having an impact on markets.

European insurers’ stocks fell as the storm raised worries that an unusually active storm season will drive up claims. Munich Re and Swiss Re, the two biggest reinsurers, dropped 3.3% and 4% respectively in trading Tuesday.

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In addition, there is a growing risk that a significantly weaker Beryl will spiral into the northern Gulf of Mexico next week. The storm has a 30% to 40% chance of reaching the upper Gulf as a tropical storm or weak hurricane, but it probably wouldn’t cause any damage, said Matt Rogers, president of the Commodity Weather Group LLC.

“I think it may stay farther south into Mexico like Alberto and Chris did, particularly if it starts to weaken in coming days as projected, but the odds of an upper Gulf entry have increased,” Rogers said.

In the last two weeks, Tropical Storms Alberto and Chris developed off Mexico’s east coast and quickly made landfall without causing extensive damage.

Fluctuations in strength are likely, but Beryl is expected to remain near major-hurricane intensity as its moves into the central Caribbean and passes close to Jamaica on Wednesday and the Cayman Islands on Thursday, the weather agency said. The other Category 5 system to occur in the Atlantic basin during July was Emily in 2005.

“Unfortunately, Beryl is breaking records that were set in 1933 and 2005 — two of the busiest Atlantic hurricane seasons on record,” said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist at Colorado State University. It likely points to a hyperactive season, he added.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles from the center, and storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 4 to 6 feet above normal tide levels in areas along the coast of Jamaica, the hurricane center said.

A Category 5 storm can result in total roof failure and wall collapse and power outages that can last for weeks or even months, according to the hurricane center. Typically, the first hurricane arrives in the Atlantic by Aug. 11 and the first major storm — Category 3 or stronger on the Saffir-Simpson scale — comes by Sept. 1, according to the center.

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