Period between Jan and Nov warmest recorded ever: US agency

New Delhi:

This November was the warmest on record, making the period between January and November the warmest such year to date (YTD), according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), a US scientific agency.

November’s record temperatures, coming on the back of record temperatures since June, now seals 2023 to be the warmest year ever, with greater than 99% chance of it breaking all past annual temperature records, NOAA said.

The alarming rise in temperatures in 2023 influenced the UN climate negotiations in Dubai. The UAE Consensus (agreement) of the summit on December 13 expressed “serious concern that 2023 is set to be the warmest year on record and that impacts from climate change are rapidly accelerating, and emphasises the need for urgent action and support to keep the 1.5 degree Celsius goal within reach and to address the climate crisis in this critical decade”.

“The year to date global land and ocean surface temperature was 2.07 degrees F (1.15 degrees C) above the 20th-century average, ranking as the warmest such YTD on record. This also makes the YTD considerably warmer (0.11 of a degree C) than the previous record warm such YTD in 2016,” NOAA said in a statement on December 14. There is a greater than 99% chance that 2023 will rank as Earth’s warmest year on record, it added.

There is also now a 54% chance of a “historically strong” El Nino during the November-January season, NOAA said in a separate El Nino Southern Oscillation diagnostic discussion. An event of this strength would potentially be in the top five El Nino events since 1950.

While stronger El Nino events increase the likelihood of climate anomalies, it does not imply expected impacts will emerge in all locations or be of strong intensity, NOAA said. El Nino is expected to continue through the northern hemisphere winter.

November also marked the sixth month in a row of record warm months. For the eighth consecutive month, the global surface temperatures of oceans also set a record high. November also marked the 47th consecutive November and the 537th consecutive month with temperatures above the 20th century average.

An interesting feature this year was that only four named storms occurred across the globe in November, the second fewest since 1981. Only one of those reached tropical cyclone strength. No storms were active in the Atlantic Ocean, which happens about once every three Novembers. The 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, which ended on November 30, had an above-average number of named storms (20), but near-average number of hurricanes (seven) and major hurricanes (three).

“This happens mainly because of wind direction anomalies. Normally, during La Nina years and even otherwise, the winds have strong eastward flow, but during El Nino time, the winds are largely westward over the Indian ocean,” said M Ravichandran, secretary, ministry of earth sciences. “So, though the heat content is more during El Nino, the wind direction doesn’t aid strong intensity cyclone formation.”

“Temperatures have been above average over India this year. We haven’t analysed the cumulative data for all months, but it is expected to be one of the warmest years,” he added. “Also, warming will be a continuous process in view of climate change and accumulated greenhouse gas concentrations, so record warm years are expected going forward.”

“El Nino effect may be seen only during the first half of next year. However, this warming will continue as it is mostly influenced by greenhouse gases. Next year may not be this warm, but we should prepare for extreme temperatures,” said climate scientist M Rajeevan, former secretary, ministry of earth sciences. “I am happy to see that countries agreed to language on fossil fuels. But it should not remain in the statement. People should really act now.”

The consensus reached under the presidency of the United Arab Emirates at the climate meet recognised the need for deep, rapid and sustained reductions in greenhouse gas emissions to contain global temperature rise within 1.5 degrees Celsius. It called on all signatories to the 2015 Paris treaty to contribute to global efforts by tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.

The UAE consensus also urged accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power, and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems in a just, orderly and equitable manner to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

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