Questions mount after China defence minister Li Shangfu’s absence

Speculation is mounting on the whereabouts of China’s US-sanctioned defence minister, General Li Shangfu, last seen in public on August 29, in the latest sign of intrigue in China’s elite politics, considered among the most opaque in the world.

Several news reports have pointed to 65-year-old Li’s absence from pubic events for over two weeks including his withdrawal from a meeting with Vietnamese defence leadership last week as a sign of him being placed under investigation.

A Reuters report on Friday evening said Li has been “…placed under investigation by Chinese authorities,” quoting 10 people familiar with the matter.

The investigation relates to “procurement of military equipment, according to a regional security official and three people in direct contact with the Chinese military.”

Li’s unexplained disappearance comes less than two months after foreign minister Qin Gang was sacked by President Xi Jinping after, similarly, not being seen in public for nearly a month amid rumours about his personal life.

Qin’s sudden removal surprised many as he was considered close to Xi. Beijing is yet to give a reason for his ouster.

Li, like Qin, is a state councillor -- a position that the latter continues to hold -- an elevated ministerial rank in China’s government hierarchy.

And, like in Qin’s case, speculation over Li’s absence has been censored on China’s closely-monitored social media.

The defence minister’s absence has triggered intense conjecture among diplomats, journalists and China watchers about his whereabouts and what led to his absence.

Li’s disappearance – as well as Qi’s removal in July – has surprised experts.

“It’s difficult to put a finger on the reason but something seems to be amiss given that both were handpicked by Xi,” said former Indian diplomat who did not wish to be named. “They were ‘his’ people,” the person said, adding even if Li is corrupt, it surprising that it was not known before he was vetted as state councillor and defence minister.

“Given the way Xi has centralised power and the fact these decisions (to appoint both Li and Qin) were taken after the last (after the October, 2022 Communist party congress) makes it surprising,” Gautam Bambawale, former Indian ambassador to China, said.

The Chinese government is yet to comment on Li’s whereabouts or the reason why he withdrew from the Vietnam meeting.

The meeting with Vietnam’s defence leaders, scheduled for September 7 and 8, was postponed after Beijing told Hanoi days before the event that the minister had a “health condition,” Reuters quoted two Vietnamese officials as saying on Thursday.

On Friday, the Financial Times, quoting multiple unnamed US officials, reported defence minister Li was “under investigation”, and “stripped of his responsibilities as defence minister”.

Last week, the US ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, fuelled speculation on Li’s status after posting on X (formerly Twitter) about his recent absence.

“First, Foreign Minister Qin Gang goes missing, then the Rocket Force commanders go missing, and now Defence Minister Li Shangfu hasn’t been seen in public for two weeks,” US ambassador Rham pointed out on X.

In the absence of any official comment on Li’s status, China watchers are looking at recent patterns of turmoil that have emerged from within the Chinese government to join the dots.

Besides the case of the sacked former foreign minister, Qin, Xi’s recent decision to replace two top generals of the PLA’s Rocket Force, a strategic arm of China’s armed forces that’s in-charge of the country’s nuclear arsenal in early August indicated a round of corruption-related purge.

“Wang Houbin, the Navy’s former deputy commander, was named the head of the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force, replacing Li Yuchao. Meanwhile, Xu Xisheng, the political commissar of Southern Theatre Command, became the new political commissar of the rocket force, replacing Xu Zhongbo,” Caixin, a business and political news website, reported on August 1.

“The PLA Rocket Force, which is believed to be one of the world’s largest missile forces, is responsible for China’s ballistic and cruise missiles and is a key part of the country’s nuclear deterrence strategy,” the Caixin report said.

Beijing hasn’t explained the ouster of Li and Xu and why two outsiders were appointed as part of the rocket force.

Defence minister Li’s last reported public event was at the third China-Africa Peace and Security Forum in Beijing on August 29 where he also met several counterparts from the continent. Delivering the keynote address at the forum, he talked about humanity facing “unprecedented challenges as global development enters a new phase of instability and transformation”.

Li was sanctioned in 2018 by Washington for violating US sanctions against Russia when, as in charge of China’s Equipment Development Department of the powerful Central Military Commission (CMC), headed by Xi, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) purchased Russian weapons including Su-35 combat aircraft and S-400 surface-to-air missile systems from the state-run Rosoboronexport.

Li visited New Delhi in late April to attend a meeting of defence ministers of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) states.

During his meeting with defence minister Rajnath Singh, Li said the situation on the China-India border is currently “generally stable” and the two sides “should take a long-term view, place the border issue in an appropriate position in bilateral relations, and promote the transition of the border situation to normalised management”.

In brief, Li, at least outwardly, was making all the right comments in his interactions with foreign counterparts.

In China’s heavily centralised system, real power lies with the CPC’s elite Standing Committee, which is headed by Xi, and the Politburo, and much less with ministers. But given the international job profile Li has as China’s defence minister – and Qin had as foreign minister -- his abrupt disappearance is bound to raise questions if all is well in Beijing.

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