Trudeau govt faces uncertainty after NDP withdraws support

Toronto: Speculation is mounting over how long Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s embattled government will last after the New Democratic Party (NDP) withdrew its support on Wednesday, with experts suggesting mid-term elections are now ‘more likely’.

The NDP has kept the minority Liberal Party government alive via the supply-and-confidence agreement they signed in March 2022. However, on Wednesday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh said he had “ripped up” that agreement.

The weakened Trudeau government’s immediate objective will be to survive the next session of the House of Commons which begins on September 16. The buoyant opposition Conservatives, who enjoy a commanding polling lead over the incumbent party, will seek to trigger a no-confidence vote, as its leader Pierre Poilievre has indicated.

That could mean snap elections could take place before the scheduled October 2025 Federal polls. As University of Toronto Scarborough campus political scientist Andrew McDougall said, “It’s not obvious that there will be a fall election, but the collapse of the deal that the Liberals had with the NDP makes the possibility more likely. However, by law there must be an election before October 2025, so an election is coming sooner rather than later regardless.”

However, Shinder Purewal, professor of political science at the Kwantlen Polytechnic University in British Columbia, felt the NDP was unlikely to back a no confidence motion moved by the Conservatives. As he said, “Party’s declining numbers in polls has forced Jagmeet Singh to withdraw from a formal agreement to support PM Trudeau’s government.

That does not mean he will support any Conservative sponsored vote of non-confidence in the government. If you listen to his message, he was more critical of Pierre Poilievre and the Conservatives.” There may be other escape routes for Trudeau as well, like the third largest party in the House, the Bloc Québécois, which has 32 seats, more than the NDP’s 24.

“The withdrawal of support does not mean an actual downfall for the government. Of course, politics can change in any moment,” Professor Purewal added.

The Liberals have 154 seats in the 338-member House.

On Thursday, Singh attacked Trudeau saying he was “too beholden to corporate interests” and said that made the prospect of early elections “more likely.” The Conservatives have previously criticized the NDP for keeping the Trudeau Government afloat till at least when Singh qualifies for an MP’s pension in the spring of 2025.

Speaking to reporters in Toronto, Singh refused to commit to supporting any confidence vote. “We’ll have to look at each vote on its merits and decide what’s in the interests of Canadians,” he said.

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