Trump vs Harris: Key races signalling early who will win the high-stakes presidential contest

The Tuesday election is here, and the political air is rife with uncertainty about who will be taking charge of the White House in this new presidential term. All eyes are locked on the battleground states, especially since pre-election surveys created more confusion than ever. Sunday’s NYT/Siena College poll granted no clear majority to Donald Trump or Kamala Harris, with Pennsylvania out of reach of comprehension, until official results are finally out. On top of that, not all races will churn out results at the same time. While some will finish early, other states’ mail-in ballot rules will ring in delayed outcomes.

According to The Hill, some of these opening American citizens’ eyes to early clues of presidential victory, include two Virginia districts, two Iowa districts, two New York congressional districts, North Carolina’s 1st congressional district, Ohio’s 9th and 13th congressional districts, Nebraska’s 2nd congressional district, and Maine’s 2nd district.

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2024 US election: Key state races that could sound the alarm for early clues

Virginia

“I think most likely we split Virginia one way or another. But obviously, you start to get some wind in your sails if you could win two — either party,” a Democratic strategist said. On the flip side, a GOP counterpart claimed, “If we’re winning Virginia-7, or coming close to winning, we think we’re going to have a really good night.”

In the Virginia Beach area, Republican Jen Kiggans is facing off against Democratic Missy Cotter Smasal for the 2nd district. On the other hand, the 7th district will see Democratic Abigail Spanberger dropping out to run for governor. Army veteran Eugene Vindman will attempt to keep the seat against Republican nominee Derrick Anderson.

If a particular party wins both seats in Virginia, that could significantly affect the bigger picture as well. However, the same can’t be said if the decision is split between both parties.

Iowa

Next in line is Iowa’s 1st and 3rd congressional districts. The Democratic official said, “Iowa-1 is probably the more likely thing. The only thing that freaks me out about Iowa is that we’ve seen time and time again that Iowa closes towards Republicans and against Democrats. And that could happen.”

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Here, both GOP incumbents, Mariannette Miller-Meeks in the 1st and Zach Nunn in the 3rd are facing reelection bids. Meanwhile, Democrat Christina Bohannan challenged the former and Lanon Baccam the latter.

Maine

Three-time Democrat Jared Golden vies to keep his post in the state’s 2nd district against challenger Austin Theriault. “Golden is going to have probably the closest race he’s ever been in. I think he’s going to squeak it out, though,” the Democrat strategist said. “We haven’t seen it collapse there for him, which is encouraging.”

North Carolina

Similarly, North Carolina’s early calls are also heavily reliant on its 1st congressional district, which has had a Democratic-leaning bent for decades. Things can take a turn for the worse here, especially since the state was severely hit by two hurricanes in a matter of weeks. As of election eve, Democrats turned to internal polls, ascertaining that first-time Rep Don Davis was faring well against Republican Laurie Buckhout. Nevertheless, the swing state battle will not be over easily, especially with a lot hinging on the Black vote.

“Since the hurricane, Trump has really reallocated a lot of his get-out-the-vote efforts to this district, from western North Carolina,” the GOP official said. “If Trump could push Laurie Buckhout over the edge, it also helps him win the state.”

Nebraska

In the 2nd congressional district, Republican Don Bacon will face Democrat Tony Varagas in a rematch. “It’s tough to see a path to the majority without us winning Nebraska-2. I know we’ve said this every cycle, as Democrats, that we’re finally going to get Don Bacon. But I feel [better] about it than I ever have,” the Dems strategist said.

Meanwhile, the GOP counterpart said of Bacon, “Once he goes back on air and reminds voters who he is, and his bipartisan bona fides, voters instantly snap back. and they remember, ‘Oh, yeah. I like Don Bacon. I like what he’s done. I voted for him last time, and I’m going to vote for him again.”

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New York

Five districts across the state have first-time Republican incumbents Nick LaLota (1st), Anthony D’Esposito (4th), Mike Lawler (17), Marc Molinaro (19) and Brandon Williams (22) stepping out in a high-stakes election. The Democratic strategist highlighted how their “offensive opportunities” were nestled in the state. New York’s 1st congressional district will be represented by Democratic John Avlon, 4th by Laura Gillen, 17th by Mondaire Jones, 19th by Josh Riley and 22nd by John Mannion.

Ohio

Finally, the longest-serving woman in congressional history, Democrat Marcy Kaptur, will face Republican Derek Merrin in the 9th congressional district. Meanwhile, Democrat Emilia Sykes and Republican Kevin Coughlin will face off in Ohio’s 13th congressional district showdown. In 2020, both districts were split between Donald Trump and Joe Biden respectively. Nonetheless, Dems are feeling positive about where the race is headed, as their strategist maintained, “We think they’re going to be OK, given the numbers that we’re seeing.”

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