US Election: 8 crucial swing states that will decide next US president

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, the political landscape is more polarised than ever and the outcome is likely to hinge on the voters in eight key swing states. According to the latest ratings by the Cook Political Report, these states remain highly competitive and could be decisive in determining whether Vice President Kamala Harris or former President Donald J. Trump crosses the crucial 270 electoral vote threshold needed to win the presidency.

Also Read: Guide to understanding Electoral College

The Battle for Electoral Votes

If both candidates manage to secure the states where they currently have solid, likely, or lean support, the race will come down to seven toss-up states and one district where the outcome is far from certain. Kamala Harris would need to secure 44 electoral votes from these toss-up states to win, while Donald Trump would require 51 electoral votes.

Also Read: How will the next US President be elected

The 8 key Swing States where the US election will be won or lost

Let’s take a closer look at the eight states that could tip the scales in this closely watched election:

Pennsylvania (19 Electoral Votes)

2020 Margin: Biden +1.2%

2024 Polls: Harris

Pennsylvania has long been a battleground state, and it remains one of the most critical in 2024. In 2020, Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania, which proved essential to his victory. With 19 electoral votes up for grabs, both campaigns are expected to invest heavily in winning over the state's diverse electorate.

Georgia (16 Electoral Votes)

- 2020 Margin: Biden +0.2%

- 2024 Polling: Trump

With 16 electoral votes its shift from a reliably Republican state to a swing state in 2020 Georgia is in the spotlight an hot favourite for candidates during campaign trail. Biden’s razor-thin victory in Georgia helped secure his win, but Trump is aiming to reclaim the state in 2024.

North Carolina (16 Electoral Votes)

2020 Margin: Trump +1.3%

2024 Polls: Not enough data

North Carolina has been a perennial swing state, and the race is expected to be close once again in 2024. Although Trump won the state by a small margin in 2020, recent polling suggests a highly competitive race this time around. The state’s 16 electoral votes could be decisive.

Michigan (15 Electoral Votes)

2020 Margin: Biden +2.8%

2024 Polling: Harris +2% lead

Michigan’s working-class voters played a pivotal role in Biden’s 2020 victory, helping him flip the state back to the Democrats after Trump’s win in 2016. With 15 electoral votes, Michigan remains a key target for both campaigns, particularly in the industrial heartland.

Arizona (11 Electoral Votes)

2020 Margin: Biden +0.3%

2024 Polls: Trump

Arizona’s changing demographics, including a growing Latino population, have made it a battleground state in recent elections. Biden’s narrow victory in 2020 was a significant shift, but Trump is determined to win back Arizona’s 11 electoral votes in 2024.

Wisconsin (10 Electoral Votes)

2020 Margin: Biden +0.6%

2024 Polling: Harris +1% lead

Wisconsin, another Rust Belt state, was instrumental in Biden’s 2020 win. The state’s 10 electoral votes are up for grabs again in 2024, with both parties focusing on appealing to the state’s mix of urban and rural voters.

Nevada (6 Electoral Votes)

2020 Margin: Biden +2.4%

2024 Polls: Not enough data

Nevada has consistently leaned Democratic in recent elections, but the margins have been close. With 6 electoral votes, the state could be a crucial part of Harris’s path to victory, but Trump’s campaign will be working hard to flip it.

Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District (1 Electoral Vote)

2020 Margin: Biden +6.5%

2024 Polls: Not enough data

While Nebraska as a whole is a solidly Republican state, it allocates electoral votes by congressional district, and the 2nd District, centered around Omaha, is a toss-up. Biden won this district in 2020, securing a single but potentially decisive electoral vote.

As the campaigns intensify and Election Day approaches, these eight swing states will be the primary focus of both parties. The strategies deployed, the issues emphasized, and the voter turnout efforts in these states will ultimately determine who wins the presidency in 2024.

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