US election: When will each state announce results of Trump vs Harris contest?

Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are leaving no stone unturned in the final hours before Election Day, when Americans will either choose the first woman president in US history or deliver the Republican an unprecedented comeback likely to rattle the world.

With polls showing a close contest, the candidates offered up starkly different visions as they spent their last day of campaigning in the too-close-to-call swing states that are set to tip the balance after polls close Tuesday.

When are the elections?

The US elections will take place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024. Results are expected to begin coming in shortly after the first polls close at 6 pm (4.30 am IST) on Tuesday. The winner will take office on January 20, 2025, and will remain in the White House for the next four years. In addition to choosing a president, voters will also select Congressional representatives for the House of Representatives and the US Senate.

Which are the battleground states

A few battleground states are wielding more influence than even the most historical monuments when it comes to choosing presidents. Among them is Pennsylvania, where every vote counts and has the potential to shift the entire political landscape. Pennsylvania, with 19 electoral votes, is crucial, making its citizens highly courted by both campaigns. To secure the necessary 270 Electoral College votes for victory, Donald Trump, Kamala Harris, and their running mates, JD Vance and Tim Walz, will be targeting Pennsylvania. Polls open at 7 am (5.35 pm IST) and close at 8 pm (6.30 am IST).

Mark Halperin, a Newsmax political analyst, believes Harris will face challenges in Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia. According to him, while Harris has a chance of winning Pennsylvania, she could still lose the White House if Wisconsin turns against her.

In the 2020 elections, Biden narrowly defeated Trump in Georgia, winning 49.5% of the vote to Trump’s 49.3%, the smallest margin in the nation. This result also ended the Republican Party’s 25-year control of the state, triggering a legal challenge from Trump’s supporters. Despite the growing population in Atlanta, which is thought to be shifting Georgia to the left, recent polls show Trump leading. Polls in Georgia open at 7 am (5.35 pm IST) and close at 8 pm. (6.30 am IST)

Since the presidential election of 1952, Arizona’s Electoral College votes have been awarded to the Democrats only twice. The "Trumpification" of the state GOP, along with rapid population growth, a large number of young Latino voters, and suburban shifts away from the Republican Party, have transformed Arizona from a solidly red state to a battleground. Polls open at 8 am (6.30 pm IST) and close at 9 pm. (7.30 am IST)

Wisconsin has traditionally supported the Democratic presidential candidate from 1988 until Trump’s unexpected victory in 2016. In 2020, Biden’s victory was a narrow one, winning the state by just 0.7%, underscoring Wisconsin’s status as a razor-thin state in contemporary elections. Polls open at 8 am (6.30 pm IST) and close at 9 pm. (7.30 am IST)

What do the odds say

A poll conducted by The Washington Post and Schar School in the early weeks of October found that 47% of registered voters are likely to support both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, respectively. The survey indicated a modest advantage for Trump in FiveThirtyEight’s poll average, though the difference is razor-thin and remains within the margin of error. On October 21st, FiveThirtyEight’s daily tracker showed that Harris retained a slim national lead over Trump, by 1.8 percentage points.

The chairman of a union chapter at a plant in Michigan expressed disappointment that the majority of his members support Trump. He shared that, like many in Michigan, his own ideologies were divided, with him feeling disillusioned by both Trump and Harris. Voter turnout in Michigan will be crucial this year, as Biden’s support for Israel’s actions in Gaza alienated nearly 100,000 Democratic voters, and Harris has not significantly deviated from Biden’s position on the matter. Polls in Michigan open at 7 am or 8 am (5.30 pm IST or 6.30 pm IST) and close at 9 pm (7.30 am IST)

Nevada has historically been a reliable political indicator, often backing the eventual winner of the presidency—Hillary Clinton’s 2016 loss being the only exception. The state’s population is predominantly concentrated in Clark County, with a more conservative north. Biden won the state by 2.5% in 2020. Recent surveys indicate that the race in Nevada is too close to call, with both contenders in a virtual tie. Polls open at 10 am (8.30 pm IST) and close at 10 pm. (8.30 am IST)

For Trump to have a chance at winning the presidency again, he must win North Carolina. Only two Democratic presidents have won the state in recent memory: Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Barack Obama in 2008. Trump won North Carolina by a slim 75,000 votes in 2020. Harris, however, has been steadily closing the gap since she replaced Joe Biden as the Democratic leader. Trump has focused on securing votes from white rural voters and has gained a significant boost from a record-breaking early voting period, with Republicans nearly matching Democratic early-voting numbers. Polls in North Carolina open at 6:30 a.m. (5 pm IST) and close at 6.30 pm (5 am IST).

Five candidates in American history, including Hillary Clinton in 2016, have shown that winning the popular vote does not guarantee victory in the Electoral College. The ultimate winner is determined by securing at least 270 electoral votes. Each state is allocated a share of the 538 total electors, based on its population.

State surveys are revealing that Trump may hold a slight advantage. With less than half a point separating the contenders in seven battleground states, the election remains a tight race.

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