View: Will Israel reshape Middle East by attacking Iran ?

Islamic Republic of Iran fired some 200 ballistic missiles into Israel on October 1 as a retaliation for the targeted killing of Islamist Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah, IRGC’s operations deputy General Abbas Nilforoushan and Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh by Israel.

The Iranian ballistic missiles had Israel’s Nevatim airbase in Negev as well as Mossad’s Headquarters as targets, but the mission despite the massive number of projectiles largely failed as IDF’s anti-missile Iron Dome and Arrow systems largely neutralised the Tehran offensive.

On April 13 this year, Tehran again targeted Israel with a mixture of ballistic missiles, drones and cruise missiles to avenge IDF’s attack on Iranian embassy in Damascus in which two IRGC’s generals perished in the air strike.

While the world is watching with bated breath on whether Israel will retaliate in kind to the October 1 offensive, Tel Aviv’s key ally US is trying to persuade Benjamin Netanyahu to keep the response proportional to the damage caused by the Tehran missile attack. So the question is : Will Israel directly attack Iran ? Will this lead to a regional conflagration ?

The answer to this question is complex as there are multiple variables in play with the first anniversary of the horrible massacre of Israeli innocents by Hamas terrorist group on October 7, 2023 round the corner. Even today Hamas has some 101 hostages with them with only 66 out of them expected to be alive.

After decapitating Hamas in Gaza and defanging other Palestinian groups in the West Bank, Israel has launched a ground offensive against a severely degraded Hezbollah in Lebanon with the intention of extinguishing Iran’s ring of fire against Israel once and for all.

While the military objective in Gaza and Lebanon is to emasculate Iranian proxies, the political objective of Netanyahu is to have Tel Aviv-friendly regimes in both Gaza and Lebanon so that October 7 is never repeated.

ALSO READ: Iran targeting Israel in dangerous Middle East Game. Can India resolve crisis?

Even though Netanyahu has vowed revenge against Iran for the ballistic missile attacks, Israel knows that the Islamic Republic has weak air defence with an air force hardly worth the name. Unlike Israel which managed to shoot the Iranian attack out of the sky, Tehran has no capacity to neutralize an Israel air or ballistic missile attack with its air defences and casualties will be heavy in case Netanyahu chooses to inflict pain on Tehran.

But a potent Israeli attack against Iran will lead to vertical escalation and could spark off a regional war with serious ramifications on global oil supply and trade in the Persian Gulf as well as the North Arabian Sea. The disruption of trade and oil supply is something that the world can ill-afford at this moment.

Israel needs full US political and military support

Given that Israel will need full US political and military support to take on Iran on its territory, Netanyahu may bag the Iranian ballistic missile attack IOU with Washington for another day while concentrating on totally decimating Hezbollah and Houthis as it has done to the Hamas terror group.

By doing this, Israel will be able to significantly reduce the threat on its doorsteps and could take on Iran at the time and date of its choosing. This does not mean that Israel will stop covert operations against Iran and its IRGC commanders, who have been running these terror proxies in the name of jihad against Tel Aviv.

While Netanyahu has clearly defined his political objective by openly instigating the Iranian population to rise against the Ayatollahs, Israel’s military objective against Tehran is to neuter its nuclear power and its capacity to wage long distance war with stand-off weapons like ballistic missiles, armed drones and cruise missiles.

Even though there is a clampdown of news in Iran, there are constant reports about dissatisfaction in the public over taking Islamic religious practices to an extreme as a weapon to subjugate the masses.

The Shia nation has been under economic sanctions for decades with the public under the iron hand of the Ayatollahs and IRGC while Tehran projects itself as a self-appointed flag bearer of Islam in the world.

Even though Israel needs US backing in the Middle-East, the military and the political leverage of the Biden administration with all the main players has weakened over the years and will remain so till the forthcoming US election next month comes up with a powerful winner.

With the US in full election mode, Israel also knows that it has time till January 20, 2025, when the new President will take oath in Washington, to militarily secure its position against the trained non-state proxies of Iran.

European powers and the UN can only offer angry words to both sides. Russia is quagmired in Ukraine and China has problems of its own in the Indo-Pacific and on the Indian border.

Albeit there is a big risk of regional war in case Israel attacks Iran in kind by taking out its military and economic critical infrastructure, Netanyahu has no options but to take on Tehran as the root cause of the problems lies in Iran.

Even if Israel is able to defang Hezbollah in Lebanon and Houthis in Yemen, the same way as Hamas has been neutered, these terror groups will regroup and rearm soon with support of Iran and the larger problem of Israel’s national security will remain unaddressed.

For Israel and its citizens to be safe, Netanyahu will have to take the war to Iran with a hope of regime change in Tehran as Tel Aviv and the Middle East will be constantly under threat till the time Ayatollahs rule the Persian nation. The solution does not lie in high value covert strikes against Iran but forcing Tehran to permanently give up on its terror tactics against Israel.

This will not only bring peace to the region but also unleash economic revival of West Asia with Sunni powers like Saudi Arabia and UAE ready to take the plunge through the Middle-East Economic Corridor. Israeli action on October 7, 2024 will be a clear indicator of the future of the Middle East. The clock is already ticking.

Disclaimer: The copyright of this article belongs to the original author. Reposting this article is solely for the purpose of information dissemination and does not constitute any investment advice. If there is any infringement, please contact us immediately. We will make corrections or deletions as necessary. Thank you.