When will Fall finally be felt? El Niño and record heat challenge American weather, bringing unpredictable cold front

El Niño and record heat make winter unpredictable for the Americans.

The US is experiencing a delayed fall, as record-high temperatures persist across the country. But a major shift is expected soon, as a cold front and a storm system bring cooler and wetter weather to many regions.

Some places have even broken records for the hottest October day ever, such as Minneapolis, which reached 92 degrees on Sunday. That’s the latest date the city has ever hit 90 degrees in a year. The heat was so intense that the Twin Cities Marathon had to be canceled due to safety concerns.

“It was just too hot for us to run a safe event for runners, supporters, and volunteers,” the organizers said on their website.

The first to feel the relief will be the northern Plains and the Rockies, where temperatures will drop by 20 to 30 degrees from Sunday to Wednesday.

Minneapolis will go from 92 degrees on Sunday to 55 degrees on Friday. That’s more like it for early October, when the average high is around 80 degrees.

The cold front will also bring thunderstorms and heavy rain to parts of Texas, where residents have suffered through a long and brutal heat wave.

The rain will help lower the temperatures from the 90s to the 70s and 80s by midweek.

However, the winter outlook is still uncertain, as the influence of a strengthening El Niño complicates the forecast.

El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when warm water builds up in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, affecting weather patterns around the world.

El Niño and the ongoing abnormally warm conditions in the oceans and atmosphere could make 2023 the hottest year on record globally, according to Robert Rohde, lead scientist for Berkeley Earth, an independent nonprofit focused on climate analysis.

“The Earth right now is far warmer than the previously measured record for this time of year,” he posted on X, formerly Twitter.

“Even with a growing El Niño, the pace and size of the uptick that we’ve seen this year is pretty shocking.”

According to the latest predictions from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño could have different impacts on different parts of the US this winter.

The northern half of the country, especially Maine and parts of western Washington and Oregon, is likely to have warmer than normal temperatures, while the southern half and much of the Atlantic coast are likely to have wetter than normal conditions.

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Some areas of the Northwest, Mountain West and Great Lakes could have drier than normal weather, which could affect snowfall and water supply.

Some places may also see their first frost of the season, as temperatures drop significantly from this week to the weekend.

But these are only probabilities, not certainties, and other factors could also influence the weather. For example, a second surge of cold air could sweep across the eastern US by this weekend, bringing more fall-like weather.

So don’t get too comfortable with your sweaters and boots or your shorts and flip-flops. The weather may change quickly and unexpectedly, as Mother Nature keeps surprising us.

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