Where is Trump vs Harris race headed on the poll of polls?

Kamala Harris has emerged as a strong contender in the presidential race against Donald Trump following President Joe Biden's exit from the election bid in July. Since then her name has climbed high on several polls determing the weather in the battle leading up to November's elections. The Democratic and Republican presidential candidate rivals are tussling with each other in a back-and-fourth tug-of-war, with some polls swinging in favour of one and others deciding otherwise.

Telegraph poll predicts Harris will win

A new Telegraph poll of swing states recently predicted for the first time that the Harris campaign will prevail on top during the November election process as she's already been widening the gap between her and Trump's numbers for weeks.

A survey conducted by Redfield & Wilton Strategies for the outlet determined that Harris is projected to take charge of the key states of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Akin to Biden's victory path in 2020, Harris reportedly also relies on support from the midwestern Rust Belt states. Meanwhile, Trump is projected to dominate the Sun Belt swing states of Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. They're both tied at 47% for Nevada.

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USA Today/Suffolk Poll also in favour of Harris

Similarly, the latest USA Today/Suffolk Poll shone a bright light of hope on a potential Democratic win. Ahead of the televised debate on September 10, Harris is leading Trump 48-43% within the margin of error. This particular poll of 1,000 likely voters was taken August 25-28, following the recent conclusion of the Democratic National Convention in Chicago.

Harris leads Trump in other polls as well

Meanwhile, the latest polling numbers gathered by the Economist estimate Harris supporters' voting intention peaking at 48% while Trump's trailed at 45%, according to the latest survey on September 2.

As of September 1, the fourth series of poll updates from The Independent's data correspondent implied that Harris (47.1%) has a +3.2 point leader over Trump (43.8%) in an average of national polls.

Voters hesitant about their choices figured into the surveys

While Biden's dropping out of the race resulted in a clear ripple effect for Harris' takeover, a new ABC News/Ipsos poll undertaken up to August 27 also determined that a third of Trump supporters (31%) are now not as confident about their election pick as before. On the flip side, the share of people supporting Harris with reservations was significantly lower (18%).

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Gender gap in the pre vs post-DNC era

Additionally, the gender gap has widened following the DNC, as more women have come out in support of Kamala Harris. While 51% of women were in favour of the Democratic presidential candidate pre-DNC, the number has shot up to 54% post-DNC. On the other hand, 49% of men were pro-Harris pre-DNC, but that statistic shrunk to 46% after the convention.

In addition, Morning Consult polls showed that Harris has a +4 point lead with Independent voters, per surveys conducted from August 16-28. One in five of these voters is still not committed to either candidate.

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