Battle for Pennsylvania: Trump vs Harris 2024 election could hinge on The Keystone State; Here's what polls say

On 5 November, the US voters will choose the next president, but seven crucial swing states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—will probably decide the outcome.

Among these crucial states, Pennsylvania is perhaps the most significant swing state. Pennsylvania, which is “Home of beer, chocolate, and liberty and Taylor Swift, has a lot of catchphrases and monikers, including “The Keystone State” and “State of Independence.” It is also called the “centre of the political universe”.

Political statistician Nate Silver's analysis revealed that the next leader of the free world will probably be determined by the outcome of voting in Pennsylvania. According to it, if Democratic leader Harris wins the state, her chances of winning the White House increase to 91%, while Trump's potential of winning soar to 96%.

History of The Keystone State

Pennsylvania's 19 electoral votes are significant among 270 that are required to win the Electoral College. The state is a bellwether for how each contender is doing among “must-win” voters nationwide.

Last month, nearly all statewide polls in Pennsylvania (PA) demonstrated a statistical tie in the White House race. The state appears to be a toss-up, with FiveThirtyEight's projections stating that Harris would win 54 times out of 100 elections.

Trump narrowly defeated Democrat Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania in 2016, winning 48.2 to 47.5%.

Along with Michigan and Wisconsin, the win knocked down the vital “Blue Wall,” which cleared the way for Trump to become president. Later in 2020, Biden defeated Trump 50 to 48.8% in Pennsylvania as he promoted the legacy of his family in the working-class city of Scranton. Pennsylvania has chosen the ultimate occupant of the Oval Office eight times in the past ten elections.

The 2024 battle in Pennsylvania

The most recent polling averages show Harris leading nationwide by 1.4 points, while Trump is 0.2 points ahead in Pennsylvania. However, Harris is faring better as compared to Biden's performance earlier this year.

When Biden withdrew from the presidential race in late July, he was over 4 points behind Trump.

The 538 presidential forecast predicts that Pennsylvania will be a close contest, with Trump winning by a margin of more than one in two instances.

It should come as no surprise that Pennsylvania has received more presidential surveys than any other state in the 2024 election cycle. Over 100 polls were conducted in the Keystone State since Harris was declared the nominee, while no other state has received more than 85.

The state is already having a significant political impact in 2024. The first assassination attempt on Trump took place in Butler, Pennsylvania.

In addition to raising questions, Harris' choice to reject well-liked state governor Josh Shapiro as her running mate may cause her to be severely scrutinised if she loses both Pennsylvania and the presidency. Moreover, Harris and Trump's one and only debate took place in Pennsylvania.

Also Read: Trump vs Harris: US election poll of polls hint at a nail-biting finish with these key states too close to call

Key issues of Pennsylvania, the state bombarded with more cash and attention

Pennsylvania has received more funding and attention than any other state in the 2024 race. For months, Harris and Trump have traveled throughout the state, appearing at union rallies and the Pennsylvania Farm Show Complex.

In Pennsylvania, Harris and her supporters spent US$21.2 million (£16.9 million) on political advertisements, which is three times their Georgia, Michigan, and North Carolina expenditures. In Pennsylvania, Trump and his supporters have spent $20.9 million.

Dollars have been poured into negative advertisements about a wide range of topics that affect Americans in general, such as criminal activity, immigration, abortion, the rate of inflation, and the cost of living crisis.

74 percent of voters believe that abortion should be permitted in all or most situations, as per a Washington Post/George Mason University poll.

In Pennsylvania, 65 percent of respondents stated that illegal immigrants “generally make the communities they live in worse.”

For Pennsylvania's sizable Polish minority, the Ukraine crisis has emerged as an especially relevant subject in an effort by Democrats to capitalize on long-standing anxieties about Russia.

However, one issue that has generated greater debate is fracking, the technique used to extract gas and oil from subterranean rock. Environmentalists are outraged that Pennsylvania has emerged as a national leader in fracking, despite the fact that proponents hail the business as a huge source of income and jobs for the state.

Harris, who stated in 2019 that she was in favor of banning fracking, now says, “I will not ban fracking.” On the other hand, Trump has supported fracking as part of his “drill, baby, drill” strategy for bringing down costs and establishing domestic energy security.

According to a Franklin & Marshall College survey conducted in October. Pennsylvanians were less inclined to believe that fracking was hazardous for the environment but appeared to be evenly divided on its effects on the economy. Just 36% of respondents stated that fracking had benefited the economy somewhat or much overall, compared to 42% who said that it had not benefited the economy at all. However, only 21% of respondents claimed that fracking had caused some or significant environmental impact, while 58% claimed that it had contributed little to no effect. Additionally, 51% of respondents said that fracking had benefited the economy more than it had harmed the environment, compared to 33% who believed the opposite.

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Here's what Pennsylvania polls say

In the nationwide polls, Harris leads Trump by 0.9%, However, 270towin shows she is now ahead of Trump by 0.3% in the Pennsylvania poll.

In the national polls, Harris leads by +1.4%, according to ABC News project 538; Trump trails by +0.3% in Pennsylvania.

According to realclearpolling, the national betting odds have swung in favor of Trump with a slim margin of +0.1 over Harris, while the Pennsylvania seems in favor of Trump by +0.4.

The public is betting heavily on Trump (66.1%) over Harris (33.8%) in the national election, according to Polymarket, a cryptocurrency trading platform. In Pennsylvania, Trump had 62% support compared to Harris' 38%.

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