Could Kansas be the next surprise swing state? New poll says…

The Cook Political called Kansas a “Safe Republican” state. History suggests Kansas has been a reliably Republican state for decades, but shifting demographics and recent polling have raised one question. Could it gradually become more competitive?

“Kansas is only competitive in a Democratic landslide in 2024,” Political experts like Neal Allen from Wichita State University told Newsweek. He believes that while Kansas is trending somewhat toward Democrats, a complete flip remains unlikely without a “Democratic landslide in 2024.” He explained, “Harris' gains nationally with highly educated white voters translate well in Kansas, but a Democratic victory is very unlikely.”

Though many analysts remain doubtful that Kansas will be in play for Democrats in the 2024 election, a recent poll by the Fort Hays State University Docking Institute of Public Affairs indicates a closer race than expected.

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The poll showed Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump leading Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris by only five points among likely voters, with 48 per cent planning to vote for Trump and 43 per cent for Harris. Among all Kansans, however—including those less likely to vote—Trump’s lead widens to 11 points, echoing the state’s historical leanings.

Kansas' Republican identity challenged by Democratic gains

Historically, Kansas’ strong Republican identity has been anchored in its rural areas and conservative suburbs, which have often outweighed the more Democratic urban areas like Kansas City, Topeka, and Lawrence. However, there are signs that this balance is shifting.

Democrats have gained ground with educated suburban voters in counties like Johnson and Sedgwick, areas that now show more openness to Democratic candidates. Johnson County, a suburb of Kansas City, supported Mitt Romney by 18 points in 2012 but shifted to back Joe Biden by over eight points in 2020. Similarly, Sedgwick County, home to Wichita, has become more competitive: Romney carried it by 20 points in 2012, but Trump won by less than 12 points in 2020.

Kansas Democrats have had some notable successes in recent years, including Governor Laura Kelly’s reelection in 2022 despite a challenging political climate. That same year, voters decisively rejected a ballot measure that would have removed state protections for abortion rights, a 59-41 decision that underscored the shifting dynamics around social issues in the state.

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Congresswoman Sharice Davids also flipped a mainly Republican seat in 2018, representing Johnson County and holding it by a solid margin in 2022, even after it was redrawn to favour Republicans.

Still, flipping Kansas would likely require Democrats to build stronger support in the state’s rural counties, where they currently receive less than 20 percent of the vote.

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