Trump's media stock surge knocks out Elon Musk's X as his winning chances skyrocket

Donald Trump’s Truth Social has taken a victory lap, outpacing Elon Musk’s X in stock market valuation. Ahead of the November 2024 presidential elections, Trump’s media venture has skyrocketed in both popularity and financial standing, fueled by strong predictions in betting markets about the former president’s lead in the elections.

Shares of Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) soared nearly 9% on Tuesday, creating quite the buzz and even triggering trading suspensions due to the excitement. While X boasts a much larger user base, TMTG’s overall market valuation surpassed that of X after a recent rally.

Trump’s truth social stock market valuation skyrockets

As of October 29, the overall market valuation of Trump’s Truth Social reached $10.3 billion at Tuesday's close, surpassing the estimated $9.4 billion valuation of X, formerly known as Twitter, according to AP. Since late September, shares of Truth Social have more than quadrupled in value. On Tuesday, the stock climbed nearly 9% to finish at $51.51, following an impressive 21.6% gain on Monday.

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This stock boost was so noticeable that trading had to be paused several times during the morning due to the sudden changes. Just a month ago, the stock was down to about $12, also the time when Vice President Kamala Harris was gaining ground.

What’s fueling Trump Media’s stock rise?

While one might think it's a normal stock market fluctuation, it’s important to note that the stock of Trump Media is closely tied to the former president’s chances of winning re-election rather than its own ability to make money. Recently, investors have felt more optimistic about Trump’s chances, causing the stock price to rise sharply.

Ever since it started, Trump Media has caught the eye of investors who think it's a gamble but could pay off big if Trump does well in the next election on Nov. 5. Trump now owns 57% of the company, and his piece of the pie is worth almost $4 billion.

Also read: Trump's ‘first day in office will bring…,’ Kamala Harris's chilling preemption stuns internet

Popular betting platforms like Polymarket have placed Trump's probability of winning higher than Kamala Harris's, while the national polling average suggests a different story. However, critics argue that betting markets provide more real-time information than polls and surveys, which tie the presidential candidates in battleground states.

The company's stock jumped up in the spring, which made Wall Street take notice of its unpredictable price spikes driven by enthusiastic day traders. However, just like GameStop, the sharp rise in Trump Media's stock created a setup for a dramatic drop. After soaring to over $66 per share in March, the stock plummeted to $12.15 last month.

Even though the TMTG market value is now higher than what was first believed for X, Musk's site is still way bigger than Truth Social.

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